The inauguration of President Donald Trump is poised to influence the real estate market in Topeka, Kansas, through several policy initiatives aimed at stimulating growth and addressing housing challenges.
Regulatory Reforms and Housing Affordability
President Trump’s administration has prioritized reducing regulatory burdens to enhance housing affordability. By cutting regulations and expanding the housing supply, the administration aims to lower construction costs, thereby making homes more affordable for buyers in markets like Topeka.
Interest Rates
President Trump’s recent policy announcements are sure to influence interest rates in the real estate market. In his address at the World Economic Forum, Trump emphasized plans to reduce interest rates, energy costs, corporate taxes, and regulations, aiming to stimulate economic growth and make borrowing more affordable.
It is worth noting, The first 3 years of the previous trump white house the rates continually rose from 3.85 to 4.54 and only fell during the pandemic. 2019 was the only decline in rates to 3.94 except for the fed cutting rates in 2020 due to the pandemic.
From my personal perspective, I believe we are unlikely to see 3% interests again for many years to come and beyond the Trump presidency. I believe we will level out in the high 4’s to low 5’s.
Following the announcements at the WEF, there was a notable decline in mortgage rates, which had been on an upward trajectory. This decrease is credited to the administration’s tariff policies and their potential impact on the economy.
However, the effectiveness of these policies in sustaining lower interest rates remains uncertain. Factors such as ongoing economic growth, consumer spending, and business investments could counteract efforts to reduce borrowing costs. Additionally, proposed tariffs and immigration policies might contribute to inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve’s ability to implement rate cuts.
While the Trump administration’s initiatives aim to lower interest rates in the real estate market, various economic dynamics will play a crucial role in determining their long-term impact. We may not see any rate changes for many months. Likely because the Presidency DOES NOT control the Federal reserve.
Economic Policies and Market Dynamics
The administration’s focus on economic growth is expected to have a positive impact on the real estate sector. Policies designed to stimulate the economy can lead to increased consumer confidence and higher demand for housing. In Topeka, this could translate into a more robust real estate market with rising property values. While the price of homes in Topeka is well below the national average, we would still need more increase in jobs that pay higher salaries in order for the housing market to continue to grow in relation to property values.
Infrastructure Investments
Investments in community infrastructure are also on the administration’s agenda. For instance, previous investments have been made in Kansas communities to enhance infrastructure, which can improve the quality of life and make areas more attractive to potential homebuyers. Such initiatives can lead to increased property values and a more vibrant real estate market in Topeka. The City of Topeka is offering incentives for Reinvestment Housing Incentive Districts that will serve to stimulate economic growth and development of a new residential housing developments in order to provide services.
Potential Challenges
While these policies offer potential benefits, it’s important to consider possible challenges. For example, proposed tariffs on imported goods could increase construction costs, and changes in immigration policies might affect the availability of skilled labor in the construction industry. These factors could influence the pace at which new housing is developed in Topeka. While it is well know, that Topeka has a large immigration population that services the home building industry, it is unknown how the immigration policies will effect the future of the industry. I like to call it a much needed balance of both. While it’s unclear what is going to happen with immigration, it is definitely a concern for much of the skilled workforce in our community.
It is informational to note, We have two sources of OSB used in roofing and all phases of home construction. We have domestic production and Canadian OSB has occasionally been subject to tariffs under U.S. trade policies, influencing pricing and supply. Under the last trump presidency OSB prices went from 8.98 per sheet to 54 per sheet and is currently at 14.74 per sheet. If tariffs are placed on canadian goods we will see domestic prices sky rocket again. While some would say that environmental issues with wild fires, unpresidented storms, rising fuel cost were also factors, they are all factors in the ability for the real estate and housing industries to thrive.
In summary, President Trump’s policies are likely to have a multifaceted impact on Topeka’s real estate market. By reducing regulations and investing in infrastructure, the administration aims to create a more favorable environment for real estate growth. However, it’s essential for stakeholders to stay informed about potential challenges that could affect the market dynamics.
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